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For a long time, the UK inflation situation significantly differed from the one in the US and the eurozone. The inflation rise was moderate and there were no risks that inflation might spiral out of control. However, the situation has changed.
Analysts had expected that the UK inflation would advance to 1.4% from 0.7%. This is a really sharp increase that caused some concerns about possible tightening of the BoE’s monetary policy. In fact, inflation accelerated to 1.5%, dispelling doubts about the future actions of the regulator. Nevertheless, market participants almost ignored the report. It seems that investors will not take risks until they receive explanations or comments from the Bank of England. As a result, the pound sterling got stuck.
The euro is also showing almost no changes. However, analysts noted an insignificant decline. The final eurozone inflation data failed to affect the market situation. The fact is that the final report met the preliminary estimates, and traders priced in this information long ago. Notably, the eurozone inflation grew to 1.6% from 1.3%.
Nevertheless, the euro and the pound sterling began slowly losing in value. The FOMC meeting minutes, which are slated for release later today, are likely to be the key reason for such a trend. Judging by the time of the publication, market participants may price in the information as early as the Asian session.
Investors are preoccupied by the Fed’s view on the current inflation growth. The indicator not just exceeded the targeted level, but reached the highest level last seen in 2008. If the meeting protocol does not reflect the regulator’s concerns about the issue, traders will consider this as a signal that the Fed will hardly alter the current monetary policy. It means that there is no ground for anxiety about the future economic growth. What is more, this eliminates risks of massive revaluation of assets in the financial market. If these predictions come true, the US dollar will be able to recoup at least some of its losses.
Yesterday, the euro/dollar pair rebounded from the support level of 1.2050. As a result, the pair resumed its uptrend and approached the local high of 1.2242 logged on February 25. In this case, traders should concentrate on the level of 1.2242. If the price breaks this level, the volume of long positions may rise, pushing the pair towards the peak of 1.2349. Traders are recommended to open long positions, only if the price consolidates above 1.2250 instead of 1.2242
According to the alternative scenario, the euro/dollar pair may stagnate and slide towards 1.2180.
At the same time, the pound/dollar pair approached the local high of the mid-term trend located at 1.4224. However, the volume of long positions decreased as usual after reaching this level.
Traders should take a close look at the area of 1.4180/1.4224 as the price may repeat the previous movement. That is why it is still possible that the pair may decline to 1.4100.
The upward trend will take place, only if the price consolidates above 1.4224 at least on the four-hour chart.
00:00 Intro
00:20 UK Annual Inflation Rate
01:02 Eurozone Annual Inflation Rate
01:52 Fed’s Key Interest Rate
02:40 EUR/USD
03:28 GBP/USD
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ค่าเงินยูโร 19.05.2021: Euro to go on gaining in value. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD